Re: Conseguenze di un conflitto nucleare regionale

From: Peltio <peltio_at_twilight.zone>
Date: Tue, 12 Dec 2006 17:41:50 GMT

Sar� anche vero che tutto � relativo, ma come la mettiamo con quanto
scritto da Giulio Severini su it.scienza.fisica il giorno 11-12-06?

> Su Le Scienze online si legge l'articolo 'Conseguenze di un conflitto
> nucleare regionale in cui si dice, alla fine, che:
>
> [...] Secondo tali modelli, le conseguenze climatiche si sono rilevate
> inaspettatamente grandi rispetto alle dimensioni del conflitto
> ipotizzato, nel quale � stato considerato l'equivalente di uno
> scambio di 100 testate da 15 chiloton, pari allo 0,03 per cento
> dell'arsenale nucleare oggi esistente. [...]
>
> Questa conclusione mi pare strana visto e considerato che, in passato,
> si sono sganciati ordigni della potenza di diversi megatoni, e
> addirittura uno da 50 (doveva essere di 100). 100 testate da 15 kT
> complessivamente liberano 1,5MT di potenza, molto al di sotto di un
> singolo ordigno fatto esplodere negli anni 50-60.

Credo si riferisca al lancio di tutte le testate in un breve periodo di
tempo.
Qui la notizia come � apparsa su ScienceDaily

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/12/061211090729.htm

"We examined the climatic effects of the smoke produced in a regional
conflict in the subtropics between two opposing nations, each using 50
Hiroshima-size nuclear weapons to attack the other's most populated
urban areas," Robock said. The researchers carried out their
simulations using a modern climate model coupled with estimates of
smoke emissions provided by Toon and his colleagues, which amounted to
as much as five million metric tons of "soot" particles.

"A cooling of several degrees would occur over large areas of North
America and Eurasia, including most of the grain-growing regions,"
Robock said. "As in the case with earlier nuclear winter calculations,
large climatic effects would occur in regions far removed from the
target areas or the countries involved in the conflict."

When Robock and his team applied their climate model to calibrate the
recorded response to the 1912 eruptions of Katmai volcano in Alaska,
they found that observed temperature anomalies were accurately
reproduced. On a grander scale, the 1815 eruption of Tambora in
Indonesia -- the largest in the last 500 years -- was followed by
killing frosts throughout New England in 1816, during what has become
known as "the year without a summer." The weather in Europe was
reported to be so cold and wet that the harvest failed and people
starved. This historical event, according to Robock, perhaps
foreshadows the kind of climate disruptions that would follow a
regional nuclear conflict.

But the climatic disruption resulting from Tambora lasted for only
about one year, the authors note. In their most recent computer
simulation, in which carbon particles remain in the stratosphere for up
to 10 years, the climatic effects are greater and last longer than
those associated with the Tambora eruption.

"With the exchange of 100 15-kiloton weapons as posed in this scenario,
the estimated quantities of smoke generated could lead to global
climate anomalies exceeding any changes experienced in recorded
history," Robock said. "And that's just 0.03 percent of the total
explosive power of the current world nuclear arsenal."

saluti,
Peltio

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Received on Tue Dec 12 2006 - 18:41:50 CET

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